Thesis Climate Change And Water Resources

Thesis Climate Change And Water Resources-44
As shown in Figure 1(a), Reg CM3 overestimated the precipitation over the YRB, especially in the upper Yellow River basin with the errors more than 0.8 mm/d.

These changes in the hydrological cycle may result in further impacts on the water resource management and socioeconomic systems [4, 5].

The Yellow River basin (YRB) is located in semiarid to arid climate zones and is an important water resource supply in North China.

These observations are obtained from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System (

Soil and vegetation parameters were determined according to the global soil database at 10 km resolution and the global land vegetation cover database at 1 km resolution [24, 25].

VIC was first calibrated using observations and then was driven by the precipitation and temperature projected by the Reg CM3 high-resolution regional climate model under the IPCC scenario A2.

Results show that, under the scenario A2, the mean annual temperature of the basin could increase by 1.6°C, while mean annual precipitation could decrease by 2.6%. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.The water resources in the Yellow River basin (YRB) are vital to social and economic development in North and Northwest China.Developing regional climate models (RCMs) with high spatial and temporal resolution, the ability to capture variability of small-scale systems and better simulations of climate features caused by local forcing has become an important goal in regional climate research. The objective of this paper is to assess the impacts of climate change on runoff in the YRB by coupling Reg CM3 high-resolution regional climate model with the VIC hydrological model.Resently, using the RCMs output for hydrological impact studies could be found in Cloke et al. Impacts of future climate change on runoff in the YRB are analyzed and these could provide a scientific basis for water resources management.Although the Reg CM3 had validated model performance for the baseline period, there is certain systematic bias remaining in the YRB due to the Reg CM3 model skill itself and the bias inherited from the driving GCM [20].Compared with observations, the simulated mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation are 1.0°C lower and 216.2 mm higher, respectively.Reg CM3 is a high-resolution regional climate model.It is nested in one-way mode with the NASA/NCAR finite volume element AGCM (Fv GCM), which was provided by the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, ICTP.The Reg CM3 model does relatively well simulate the climate of East Asia and China and does especially well in the simulation of monsoon rainfall [17, 18].The Reg CM3 outputs for the baseline period (1971–2000) and a future period (2001–2030) with greenhouse gas forcing from the IPCC A2 scenario used in this study were provided by National Climate Center of China.


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